Historical Background of the Prophecy

The Prophecy of the Popes is a famous set of predictions credited to Saint Malachy, though its true origins are much later. It consists of 112 short, cryptic Latin phrases that purportedly describe each successive Roman Catholic pope, beginning with Celestine II in 1143 (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia). The prophecy was first published in 1595 by Benedictine monk Arnold Wion (also de Wyon) in his book Lignum Vitæ, and Wion claimed to be reproducing a prophecy Malachy wrote in the 12th century (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia). According to Wion, he discovered the manuscript in the Vatican archives and it had never been printed before (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia) (Petrus Romanus Prophecy; Will The Next Pope Lead To The Apocalypse? | IBTimes). He published the Latin mottoes along with explanatory notes linking each phrase to specific popes up to Urban VII (who died in 1590), citing a scholar named Alphonsus Ciacconius as the source of those interpretations (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia).

Legend has it that Malachy experienced a vision in 1139 while visiting Rome. In this vision he foresaw all future pontiffs and recorded the revelation as a list of cryptic phrases (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia). The story goes that this manuscript was then placed in the Vatican Secret Archives and “forgotten” until it was supposedly rediscovered in 1590, just in time for a papal conclave that year (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia). In reality, there is no record of this prophecy before the late 16th century. St. Bernard of Clairvaux, who wrote an extensive biography of Malachy and praised his holy life, never mentions any prophecy of future popes (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia). The earliest known reference to the prophecy only dates to around 1587, strongly suggesting it was not an authentic 12th-century document but rather appeared in the late 1500s (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia). Many historians believe the list was actually concocted around 1590 – possibly to influence the 1590 conclave by legitimizing a particular cardinal. Indeed, one theory holds that supporters of Cardinal Girolamo Simoncelli introduced the “prophecy” to boost his papal candidacy, since one of the mottos around that time (“Ex antiquitate Urbis” or “From the old city”) could be applied to Simoncelli’s hometown of Orvieto (Urbs vetus in Latin) (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia). Whether or not it was created for that specific political motive, scholars overwhelmingly consider the work a pseudepigraphic forgery – a prophecy falsely attributed to Malachy long after his death (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia). By all accounts, Malachy himself had nothing to do with the list, which only gained notoriety centuries later when Wion published it.

Overview of the List of Popes and the Final Entries

The prophecy’s content is a list of 112 mottoes, each a brief Latin phrase meant to represent a pope (or occasionally an antipope) in chronological order (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia). These mottos are often metaphorical or allegorical. For example, the very first phrase is “Ex castro Tiberis” (“From a castle of the Tiber”), which matches Pope Celestine II — born Guido di Castello in a town on the Tiber River (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia) (New Liturgical Movement: The “Prophecies” of St Malachy). In the portion of the list covering popes before 1590, the connections between the mottoes and the popes are usually clear and literal, often referencing a pope’s family name, coat of arms, birthplace, or title (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia) (New Liturgical Movement: The “Prophecies” of St Malachy). However, for popes after the prophecy’s 1595 publication, the phrases become much more obscure and open to interpretation, similar to the cryptic style of Nostradamus (New Liturgical Movement: The “Prophecies” of St Malachy). In many cases, writers have had to stretch to find meanings: for instance, Pope Clement XIII (1758–1769) was a Venetian nobleman matched with “Rosa Umbriae” (“Rose of Umbria”), which clearly does not fit literally – one explanation offered was that he honored a few Franciscan saints from Umbria, a rather convoluted connection (New Liturgical Movement: The “Prophecies” of St Malachy). By contrast, some later phrases do seem to coincide by chance. Pope Leo XIII’s coat of arms featured a comet (a light in the sky), which corresponds to “Lumen in coelo” (“Light in Heaven”), and Pope Paul VI’s arms included three fleur-de-lis, fitting “Flos florum” (“Flower of flowers”) (New Liturgical Movement: The “Prophecies” of St Malachy). Such examples are often cited by enthusiasts, but given the vagueness of the Latin clues, any resemblance is usually coincidental or achieved via creative interpretation (New Liturgical Movement: The “Prophecies” of St Malachy) (New Liturgical Movement: The “Prophecies” of St Malachy).

([image]()) Facsimile of the final lines of Wion’s 1595 publication, showing the last mottos “Gloria olivae” and “Petrus Romanus” in the Prophecy of the Popes (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia).
The last few entries of the list have attracted intense interest, as they ostensibly predict the final popes leading to the end of the Church (and the world). The 111th motto on the list is “Gloria olivae” (“Glory of the Olive”), which has been interpreted as referring to Pope Benedict XVI (2005–2013) (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia). Some speculated this could connect to the Olivetan order (an offshoot of the Benedictines) or to Benedict XVI’s efforts for peace (the olive branch being a symbol of peace), but in truth the link is tenuous (Petrus Romanus Prophecy; Will The Next Pope Lead To The Apocalypse? | IBTimes). Just before Benedict, the 110th phrase “De labore Solis” (“From the labor of the sun”) was retrospectively applied to Pope John Paul II. Supporters of the prophecy note that John Paul II was born during a solar eclipse in 1920 and entombed during another eclipse in 2005 (Petrus Romanus Prophecy; Will The Next Pope Lead To The Apocalypse? | IBTimes) – an intriguing coincidence used to claim this motto was a “hit.” Finally, the list ends with an especially dramatic entry: “Petrus Romanus” – Latin for “Peter the Roman.” Unlike the preceding entries, this last one is given not as a brief epithet but as a full sentence of prophecy: “In persecutione extrema S.R.E. sedebit Petrus Romanus, qui pascet oves in multis tribulationibus; quibus transactis civitas septicollis diruetur, & judex tremendus judicabit populum suum. Finis.” In English, this proclaims: “In the final persecution of the Holy Roman Church, there will sit Peter the Roman, who will pasture his sheep through many tribulations, at the end of which the city of seven hills (Rome) will be destroyed, and the dreadful Judge will judge his people. The End.” (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia) (Petrus Romanus Prophecy; Will The Next Pope Lead To The Apocalypse? | IBTimes). In other words, the last pope (symbolically named Peter II of Rome) is foretold to lead the Church amid great calamities until Rome itself is destroyed and the Last Judgment occurs.

It’s important to note an ambiguity in how the prophecy’s final entries are recorded. In Wion’s original 1595 text, the line “In persecutione extrema S.R.E. sedebit.” (“He will reign in the final persecution of the Holy Roman Church”) appears as a separate sentence, before “Petrus Romanus” (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia). This has led some interpreters to suggest that the phrase “In extreme persecution…” might signify one or more popes in between “Glory of the Olive” (Benedict XVI) and “Peter the Roman.” In other words, the prophecy could allow for an unnumbered pope (or popes) reigning during a period of persecution, prior to the final Pope Peter (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia). Under this interpretation, the list of 112 mottos would not strictly end with the very last Pope, but rather the last numbered motto (Gloria olivae) is followed by an indeterminate gap, and “Peter the Roman” comes at the very end of the age. However, most popular readings merge the persecution phrase with the Petrus Romanus entry as one continuous prophecy about the final Pope (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia). In that common interpretation, the 112th figure on the list is indeed the last Pope, Peter the Roman, after whom comes doomsday. Either way, the prophecy clearly paints the idea of an ultimate pontiff whose reign coincides with extreme tribulations and the end of the Church’s earthly journey.

Interpretations and Applications Over Time

Ever since its publication, the Prophecy of the Popes has invited efforts to match each cryptic motto to a particular pope’s life or reign. Early commentators in the 17th and 18th centuries did not universally accept the prophecy at face value – in fact, skeptics emerged almost immediately – but many readers were fascinated by how neatly the pre-1590 predictions appeared to line up with history. For the period up to 1590, Wion’s interpretive notes and other writers pointed out the obvious correspondences (family names, heraldry, etc.), reinforcing the impression that the prophecy had uncanny accuracy. After 1590, however, fulfilling the prophecy required more creative hindsight. In each era, as new popes took the throne, clergy and laity who knew of the prophecy tried to fit the latest pope to his Malachian motto, often retroactively. Some matches seemed plausible, others were strained. For example, in the 19th century Pope Pius IX was given the motto “Crux de cruce” (“Cross from a cross”), which was interpreted as him being a pope who bore a cross of suffering following the cross-shaped legacy of a predecessor (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia). Pope Leo XIII’s motto “Lumen in coelo” (“Light in the sky/heaven”) was linked to the comet emblem on his coat of arms, as noted above (New Liturgical Movement: The “Prophecies” of St Malachy). In the 20th century, some interpretations took on a prophetic tone: Benedict XV (reigned 1914–1922) had the motto “Religio depopulata” (“Religion depopulated”), which people later saw as eerily fitting for the period of World War I and the 1917 Communist revolution – events that devastated many Christian populations and institutions. Likewise, Pius XII (1939–1958) was tagged “Pastor angelicus” (“Angelic Shepherd”); admirers of Pius XII noted his lofty, spiritual bearing and even titled a 1942 film about him Pastor Angelicus in reference to the prophecy (Papal Prophecies, Saint Malachy, The End of Religion – Crystalinks). By mid-20th century, as the list drew closer to its end, Catholic writers increasingly commented on the prophecy. Some treated it as a curious legend, while others cautiously wondered if it might indeed culminate in their own lifetime.

As the list approached the final entries, each new papal conclave spurred renewed public interest in St. Malachy’s prophecy. This was especially true in 1978, the “year of three Popes,” and then again in 2005 upon the death of John Paul II. When Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger became Pope Benedict XVI in 2005, prophecy-watchers noted he corresponded to the penultimate motto (“Glory of the Olive”) (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia). Because only one entry remained after him, some wondered if his successor would be the last Pope. Indeed, during Benedict’s reign and especially when he announced his resignation in February 2013, global media outlets revisited the prophecy and questioned what a new pope might mean in this apocalyptic framework. The idea of the “final pope” made headlines. For instance, an International Business Times article in 2013—with the dramatic title “Will The Next Pope Lead To The Apocalypse?”—explained the prophecy’s claim that the pope elected after Benedict XVI “will be the last and will bring the destruction of Rome as well as the apocalypse.” (Petrus Romanus Prophecy; Will The Next Pope Lead To The Apocalypse? | IBTimes). Around the same time, books and websites by prophecy enthusiasts proliferated, some arguing that the prophecy was unfolding in real-time. One sensational book titled Petrus Romanus: The Final Pope is Here (2012) proposed that the 112th pope would herald the End Times. In the popular imagination, Malachy’s list became entwined with other end-of-the-world narratives (even the 2012 Mayan calendar hype), fueling conspiracy theories and doomsday speculation (Petrus Romanus Prophecy; Will The Next Pope Lead To The Apocalypse? | IBTimes) (Saint Malachy | Biography, Armagh, Ireland, & Prophecy | Britannica). However, interpretations have varied: while many assumed the list straightforwardly implies the next pope after Benedict would be Peter the Roman, others, as noted, pointed out the ambiguity in the text that could allow another pope in between. This debate became very pointed in March 2013 when Pope Francis was elected. Francis is technically the 112th pope from Celestine II if one counts the prophecy’s list one-to-one. Yet he chose the name Francis, not Peter, and he was a Jesuit from Argentina – not obviously “Roman” by name or origin (though of Italian descent). Some prophecy adherents immediately tried to reconcile this: for example, they noted that St. Francis of Assisi, from whom the Pope took his name, was born Giovanni di Pietro (John son of Peter) and his father’s name was Pietro, which could symbolically link Pope Francis to “Peter” (Pope died – What the prophecy says about the end of the world | RBC-Ukraine). They also observed that as Bishop of Rome, any pope can be considered ‘a Roman’. Such arguments illustrate how interpreters bent details to make Francis fit the Petrus Romanus title. Other speculators contended that Francis is actually the pope of the “final persecution” (the incomplete line) and that the next pope after Francis would be the true Peter the Roman. In sum, ever since the prophecy neared its end, people have actively reinterpreted it to suit unfolding events, showing a remarkable flexibility in analysis.

Authenticity, Accuracy, and Controversies

From a scholarly and Catholic perspective, the Prophecy of the Popes has long been viewed with skepticism. Key reasons include its late appearance, historical anachronisms, and the pattern of accuracy only before 1590. Modern analyses underscore that the prophecy’s track record is too good to be true up to the point of publication, and then remarkably poor afterward. For example, Catholic author Jimmy Akin reviewed each motto and found that for popes before 1590 about 95% of the mottos were direct “hits” (clear matches), whereas for popes after 1590 less than 10% were clear hits – the rest were either so vague they could fit anything or outright misses (How Reliable Is the St. Malachy Prophecy? – Jimmy Akin) (How Reliable Is the St. Malachy Prophecy? – Jimmy Akin). This stark divide strongly suggests someone fabricated the list around 1590, matching all the predecessors perfectly (with the help of history books) and leaving the future entries general enough to be interpreted later (How Reliable Is the St. Malachy Prophecy? – Jimmy Akin). In fact, detailed research shows that many of the pre-1590 descriptions seem to be lifted from a 16th-century history by Onofrio Panvinio, even repeating some of its errors (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia). This indicates the author was not Malachy in the 1100s but a scholar (or someone with sources) in the late 1500s. The likely motive was to impress or sway contemporaries. As noted, one theory posits the prophecy was circulated to influence the 1590 conclave in favor of a certain candidate (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia). Whether or not it affected that conclave, by the time Wion published the text in 1595 the prophecy had taken on a life of its own.

Critics throughout history have voiced doubts. In 1694, French Jesuit Claude-François Menestrier argued that the interpretive notes in the 1595 publication (attributed to Ciacconius) were likely not actually written by that scholar, since none of his genuine works ever mention this prophecy (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia). In the 18th century, Spanish scholar Benito Jerónimo Feijóo pointed out the convenient fact that the prophecy was extremely accurate up until its publication, and then “a high level of inaccuracy” thereafter – a pattern best explained by fraudulent authorship in the time of publication (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia). In 1880, M.J. O’Brien published a thorough debunking, tracing the historical context and concluding the Prophecy of the Popes was a forgery with no legitimate provenance in Malachy’s time (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia) (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia). The Catholic Church, for its part, has never endorsed the prophecy. It holds no official status in Catholic teaching, and many theologians over the years have dismissed it as false or irrelevant (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia). The Encyclopaedia Britannica plainly labels it a “16th-century forgery” falsely ascribed to Malachy, noting that it has routinely been a source of wild theories about the Church and end-times (Saint Malachy | Biography, Armagh, Ireland, & Prophecy | Britannica). Even many who find the prophecy intriguing concede that it does not carry the weight of authentic private revelation or Church-recognized prophecy. In short, there is a strong consensus among historians that the Prophecy of the Popes is a pseudepigraphon – a work deliberately published under a famous name to give it authority – rather than a genuine medieval vision (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia).

Another point of controversy is the prophecy’s interpretation and possible impact on the faithful. Some worry that believers might take it too seriously and fall into fatalism or apocalyptic panic, especially when a pope’s reign coincides with turmoil. However, others note that because the Church does not confirm the prophecy, it remains in the realm of speculation and folklore. When Pope Francis was elected and the prophecy’s supposed final phase began, Vatican officials and Catholic commentators typically downplayed or ignored the prophecy altogether, reinforcing that it should not guide any official outlook. In fact, some Catholic apologists argue the prophecy has no spiritual value – unlike biblical prophecies, it gives no call to repentance or prayer, only a cryptic list that seems designed to intrigue rather than edify (How Reliable Is the St. Malachy Prophecy? – Jimmy Akin) (How Reliable Is the St. Malachy Prophecy? – Jimmy Akin). This lack of a clear religious purpose is another clue that its origin was more likely human trickery than divine revelation (How Reliable Is the St. Malachy Prophecy? – Jimmy Akin) (How Reliable Is the St. Malachy Prophecy? – Jimmy Akin).

Modern Interpretations: Pope Francis and the Idea of the ‘Final Pope’

In today’s context, discussion of Malachy’s prophecy often centers on whether Pope Francis is the last pope of the list – and by extension, whether we are near the End Times. When Francis (formerly Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio) was elected in March 2013, he became the fulfillment of the 112th entry if one reads the prophecy straightforwardly. He did not take the name “Peter II,” which would have been an overt match to “Petrus Romanus” (indeed, no pope in history has dared to take the name Peter out of respect for the first pope, and a pious legend holds that no pope will ever name himself Peter (New Liturgical Movement: The “Prophecies” of St Malachy) (New Liturgical Movement: The “Prophecies” of St Malachy)). Nevertheless, some prophecy believers quickly found ways to connect Francis to the prophecy. One angle, as mentioned, was that St. Francis of Assisi – from whom Pope Francis took his papal name – was originally named Francesco di Pietro, the son of a man named Peter, thereby inserting a “Peter” into Francis’s lineage symbolically. Another observation was that Pope Francis, coming from a family of Italian (Roman) immigrants in Argentina, could be seen as a “Roman” by blood. While these connections are certainly speculative, they illustrate the popular desire to see the prophecy come true, even if it requires stretching the details. On the other hand, many argue Francis does not fit “Peter the Roman” at all, and thus conclude that if the prophecy were true, Francis must actually be an interim figure (perhaps the one who rules during the “extreme persecution” mentioned) and that a future pope – possibly to be elected after Francis – would take the name Peter and definitively be the last. It is here that the prophecy dovetails with various apocalyptic narratives. Some fringe interpreters claim that after Francis’s pontificate, the next pope will be a usurper or an Anti-Christ figure using the name Peter, leading to the ultimate collapse. These theories remain firmly in the realm of speculation and are not supported by evidence.

In mainstream Catholic discourse, Pope Francis’s role is viewed through the lens of tangible issues (church reforms, geopolitical influence, etc.) rather than any medieval prophecy. However, the Malachy prophecy does occasionally surface in media commentary and public imagination, especially during health scares or crises involving Francis. For example, rumors or fake news of Pope Francis’s death or resignation often trigger a flare-up of “final pope” talk on social media (Pope died – What the prophecy says about the end of the world | RBC-Ukraine) (Pope died – What the prophecy says about the end of the world | RBC-Ukraine). In 2020–2022, during the COVID-19 pandemic and Francis’s health surgeries, internet conspiracy forums revisited St. Malachy’s vision, some wondering if the end of Francis’s tenure (and thus the end of the papal line in prophecy) was imminent. Such discussions, while not taken seriously by scholars, show that the prophecy continues to live on as a popular myth, influencing how some people frame current events.

Influence on Popular Culture and Apocalyptic Thought

Despite its dubious authenticity, the Prophecy of the Popes has seeped into popular culture, fiction, and prophecy lore, especially regarding doomsday scenarios. Over the years it has been featured in numerous books and novels, often as a dramatic plot device whenever a story involves the papacy or the end of the world. For instance, thriller novels have been inspired by the mystique of the prophecy: Steve Berry’s The Third Secret (2005) imagines a modern conclave and a Pope Peter II, reflecting the Malachian final pope motif (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia). Similarly, James Rollins’ novel The Doomsday Key (2009) incorporates Saint Malachy’s “doomsday prophecy” into a storyline of global conspiracies and ancient secrets (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia). Such fictional treatments often portray a newly elected pope taking the name Peter or secretly fulfilling the prophecy, thereby unleashing apocalyptic events – a clear testament to how the legend of the “last Pope” captivates writers and audiences.

Beyond literature, the prophecy frequently emerges in media articles and documentaries whenever there is a papal transition or a significant event concerning the Vatican. Television specials about papal history sometimes mention St. Malachy’s list as a curious footnote. Around 2013, numerous news outlets – from serious newspapers to tabloids – ran stories on the prophecy in light of Benedict’s resignation. Headlines mused on whether Pope Francis was “The Last Pope?”, blending factual reporting with a touch of sensationalism. This shows how the prophecy has become part of the modern apocalyptic narrative toolkit, much like the predictions of Nostradamus or the Mayan calendar were. It is invoked during times of uncertainty to add a dramatic, fateful angle to current events. Especially in our era of rapid information (and misinformation), the myth of the final pope gets recycled on blogs, YouTube channels, and even in some church circles, despite official disavowals. The prophecy’s appeal lies in its mystery and the notion that history has a pre-written endpoint. In a way, it serves as a cultural reference point whenever people speculate about the end of the Catholic Church or try to tie current crises to End Times scenarios.

In conclusion, the Prophecy of the Popes attributed to St. Malachy remains a fascinating historical curio. Its historical background reveals it as a likely forgery from a tumultuous time in Church history, and its list of popes, while intriguing, has required generous interpretation to fit reality. Over the centuries, it has been alternately believed, debunked, and reinterpreted, reflecting the hopes and anxieties of those reading it. The prophecy has faced significant criticism and controversy regarding its authenticity, and scholarly consensus holds that it is not a genuine predictive prophecy. Yet, the legend lives on in popular imagination. Today, with Pope Francis’s reign ongoing, the prophecy is frequently referenced in discussions about the “final pope,” illustrating how a 16th-century fabrication can evolve into a modern myth. As a fixture in apocalyptic lore and fiction, the Prophecy of the Popes continues to influence how some envision the future of the papacy and the end of the world, even as the Catholic Church itself approaches such claims with caution and skepticism (Saint Malachy | Biography, Armagh, Ireland, & Prophecy | Britannica).

Sources: The above report draws on historical analyses, including scholarly critiques from the Catholic Encyclopedia and historians (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia) (Prophecy of the Popes – Wikipedia), contemporary news articles (Petrus Romanus Prophecy; Will The Next Pope Lead To The Apocalypse? | IBTimes) (Petrus Romanus Prophecy; Will The Next Pope Lead To The Apocalypse? | IBTimes), and reputable references such as Encyclopaedia Britannica (Saint Malachy | Biography, Armagh, Ireland, & Prophecy | Britannica). These sources document the origins of the prophecy, its chronological list of papal mottos, and the varying interpretations and debates it has sparked up to the present day.

The Prophecy of the Popes and the End of Days