While the world waits to see if the U.S. government will finally confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life, prediction markets on Polymarket have poured millions of dollars into bets on whether the U.S. will officially confirm aliens exist by specific deadlines.
In February 2026, President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he would direct the Secretary of Defense and relevant agencies to begin releasing government files on aliens, UFOs, UAPs, and extraterrestrial phenomena. That single post moved markets Polymarket alien contracts surged.
The result: aliens are now the #1 Hot Topic on Polymarket, with traders wagering life-changing sums on what has historically been treated as fringe speculation.
The Key Polymarket Contracts
1. Will the Trump administration declassify alien/UFO files by March 31, 2026?
- Resolution: Yes if any files on extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena are declassified by 11:59 PM ET on March 31, 2026
- On March 19, 2026, odds spiked to 53% then crashed to 11% hours later
- Started at 43% on February 22; dropped to a low of 7% on March 15
2. Will the US confirm aliens exist before 2027?
- Resolution: Yes if the President or a federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by Dec 31, 2026
- Stood at 19-22% as of late February 2026
- Has drawn over $4 million in trading volume
As Newsweek reports, the chances of Trump releasing alien files spiked to 53% on March 19, 2026 before dropping dramatically.
The Trump Factor
Trump Truth Social post read: Based on the tremendous interest shown, I will be directing the Secretary of War, and other relevant Departments and Agencies, to begin the process of identifying and releasing Government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and unidentified flying objects (UFOs).
The aliens.gov Domain Registration
On March 18, 2026, the Executive Office of the President registered aliens.gov and alien.gov through CISA federal domain registry. As Forbes reports, the government registered the domains following Trump vow to release UFO files.
Why It Matters
1. A new kind of evidence: Prediction markets aggregate information from thousands of informed traders who put real money behind their beliefs.
2. The March 31 deadline is 8 days away: The resolution clock is ticking.
3. Polymarket is a real-time credibility meter: The wild swings (7% 53% 11% in days) reflect how sensitive the alien question is to every piece of news.
4. It not just nerds anymore: Aliens have gone from conspiracy theory to covered by major news outlets including Business Insider, The Guardian, and USA Today.
