Key Takeaways
- Russian officials say dozens of long-range drones—Lavrov mentioned 91, with other accounts up to 109—targeted Russian territory and allegedly attempted to strike a presidential residence in the Novgorod/Valdai area; the Ministry of Defense published footage said to show wreckage.
- A major blackout affected southeastern Moscow suburbs between December 28–30, 2025, with estimates of affected people ranging from about 100,000 to 600,000. Local videos show dark neighborhoods and residents reporting loud hums described as drone-like.
- Key unknowns remain: independent geolocation and metadata verification of the MoD video, whether drones caused the blackout or a substation fire did, and whether the timing served political objectives amid negotiations.
The night the suburbs went dark
Between December 28 and 30, 2025, parts of southeastern Moscow suburbs including Ramenskoye, Lytkarino, and Zhukovskoye experienced sudden power outages. Social channels filled with shaky videos of whole blocks in darkness, audio recordings of low mechanical hums, and reports of mobile-service disruption. Emergency crews and mobile generators were deployed; residents described a tense, confusing night as information spread rapidly online.
Witness accounts and open-source signals
Local Telegram channels published multiple clips showing unlit streets and people saying they heard drone-like noises overhead. Administrators and local media documented crew responses and posted statements from power authorities blaming a substation fire. The MoD posted its own material claiming drone wreckage near a presidential site.
Independent verification is limited: no confirmed satellite thermal imagery or public radar/flight data have been published that clearly link a drone strike to the blackout. Analysts and OSINT investigators called for geolocation and metadata checks of the MoD footage and for raw telemetry from energy operators.
Timeline and reported figures
Event window: Dec 28–30, 2025, with official and social-media attention peaking Dec 30–31. Affected population estimates vary: some outlets cited about 100,000 people, others up to ~600,000. Russian official statements quoted dozens to a hundred-plus long-range drones; Kyiv denied involvement and urged independent checks.
Official narrative vs available data
Russian officials described a large-scale drone attack and provided footage they say shows downed drones near a presidential residence. Local energy companies and some authorities, however, described the incident as stemming from a substation fire, emphasizing infrastructure failure and emergency response.
Analysts note three plausible explanations: 1) drones struck and directly or indirectly caused grid damage; 2) an unrelated substation fire caused the blackout while drone claims were exaggerated or opportunistic; or 3) a combination of an aerial event plus infrastructure failures. Current open-source material confirms the blackout occurred, but not causation.
Implications
Attribution matters for policy. If the blackout was caused by an attack, it could justify escalatory responses; if it was an accident, claims of an attack could be information operations intended to influence negotiations or public opinion. The event highlights the fragility of civilian infrastructure in contested environments and the difficulty of independently verifying state claims without raw data.
Next steps for investigators
- Obtain grid telemetry and outage logs from energy operators to map failure points and timings.
- Search for satellite imagery (optical and thermal) from the nights in question to identify fires, explosions, or unusual heat signatures.
- Geolocate and examine metadata of the MoD video and social-media posts to confirm time and place.
- Request radar, ADS-B, or other flight-tracking data that might show low-altitude aerial activity.
- Trace original Telegram posts and videos for consistent provenance and corroborating eyewitness accounts.
Frequently Asked Questions
Large power outages affected southeastern Moscow suburbs between Dec 28–30, 2025. Local authorities cited a substation fire; Russian officials claimed a drone attack. Independent attribution remains unresolved.
Not yet. The MoD released footage it says shows wreckage, and social audio/video indicates aerial noise, but public geolocation, metadata validation, satellite imagery, and radar/flight data needed for robust attribution are not publicly available.
Because state claims can serve political goals and because the available public evidence is incomplete. Analysts call for independent verification before concluding causation or intent.
Misattribution could lead to unnecessary escalation, erode trust in public information, and obscure genuine security vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure.
